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INTRODUCTION

Background

In hopes of reaching its goal of becoming the most sustainable city in the world by 2020, the City of Vancouver announced in July of 2013 that it will be implementing a public bike share system (PBS) sometime in the upcoming year (click here to navigate to the City's bike share page). Bike share systems are a success in many cities around the world, providing people with a low-cost, health conscious, on-demand and environmentally sustainable transportation option which can be used in conjunction with walking and public transportation to improve mobility in the city. However, since these systems are, like other modes of public transport, typically dependent on user fares in order to be successful, it is important that they are installed in bike-friendly areas. The City of Vancouver’s PBS will service the downtown peninsula (though the City has not been specific on whether the PBS will service the West End and Stanley Park, this analysis assumes that it will), and also the area bordered by Arbutus Street to the west, 12th Avenue to the south and Main Street to the west. The City states that “this area suits a PBS because of the high number of homes, offices, and businesses, and the potential for many short distance bicycle trips.”

City boundary and currently proposed boundaries of PBS (assuming it will cover the West End and Stanley Park.

Purpose of Project

Although the City has not announced its long-term plans for the PBS, assuming it becomes sufficiently popular in the launch area it is very possible that it may be extended beyond the currently proposed borders. If this proves to be the case, which hopefully it will given the potential environmental, health and even social benefits of the system, it is important that the PBS be implemented in other areas where it is likely to be successful.

This project will attempt to locate the most suitable 5 percent of the remaining land area (that is, the area falling outside the proposed PBS borders) for a PBS using a multi-criteria evaluation in ArcGIS 10.1. The intent of this analysis is for the results to illuminate how the City might expand the PBS across Vancouver, whether radially outward from the current boundaries, in various pockets across the city, along busy corridors extending into downtown, or otherwise.  The factors included in the analysis are based on previous work on the determinants of bicycle use in Bulgium by Vandenbulcke et al. (2011), in the Netherlands by Rietveld and Daniel (2004) and in Metro Vancouver by Winters, Davidson, Kao and Teschke (2011).

Previous work

Having surveyed 1402 current and potential cyclists in Metro Vancouver in order to rank the impacts of various motivators and deterrents on cycling, the study by Winters et al. (2011) is very useful to the present analysis. However, the survey was restricted to external motivators and deterrents on the decision to cycle (such as infrastructure, laws related to cycling, the quality of lane marking and signage, etc.). Since this analysis seeks to include some socio-cultural factors as well, it has supplemented the information from Winters et al. with the aforementioned European studies.

 

The top 10 motivators and top 10 deterrents to cycling in Metro Vancouver are listed below (Winters et al., 2011, p. 158):

MOTIVATORS

 

  1. The route is away from traffic, noise and air pollution

  2. The route has beautiful scenery

  3. The route has bicycle paths separated from traffic for the entire distance

  4. The route is flat

  5. Cycling to the destination takes less time than other modes

  6. The distance to your destination is less than 5 km

  7. I can make the trip in daylight hours

  8. You can take your bike on the SkyTrain at any time

  9. Offstreet path has a reflective centre line for night and poor weather

  10. Secure indoor bike storage 

DETERRENTS

 

  1. The route is icy or snowy

  2. The street has a lot of car, bus and truck traffic

  3. Vehicles drive faster than 50 km/h

  4. The route has glass or debris

  5. The risk from motorists who don't know how to drive safely near bicycles

  6. The risk of injury from car-bike collisions

  7. It is raining

  8. The route is not well lit after dark

  9. The route has surfaces that can be slick when wet or icy when cold

  10. I need to carry bulky or heavy items 

Many of the factors influencing bicycle use in Belgium and the Netherlands are similar to those included in the chart above. Vandenbulcke et al. cite flat terrain as by far the greatest motivator for cycling, but also note high-quality routes, short commuting distance and low accident risk as important (2011). Rietveld and Daniel echo Vandenbulcke et al. in stating elevation as the number one factor in the decision to cycle, adding low stop frequency, low hindrance frequency, speed and distance to rapid transit to the previous list, noting that within a short distance of rapid transit cycling decreases (because it is easy to walk), but within about 1-7.5 km of rapid transit bike use increases (2004). However, both these studies also examine socio-cultural factors in their analyses, of which the following were shown to increase bike use: good health; a young population; low to medium income; being male; being a citizen or a long term resident; and not having young children (Vandenbulcke et al., 2011; Rietveld and Daniel, 2004).
 

This analysis will use a selection of the physical and socio-cultural factors listed above to determine the areas of Vancouver into which the PBS might be expanded in upcoming years. The specific factors to be used, and the reasoning for choosing or not choosing each, is explained in the factor choice subheading.  

PBS BOUNDARY

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