RESULTS

BEST AREAS OF VANCOUVER IN WHICH TO EXPAND THE PROPOSED PUBLIC BIKE SHARE SYSTEM

The above map displays the top 5 percent of the study area as revealed by the weighted sum fuction based on the "proper" weights (meaning those based off the studies by Winters et al. (2011), Vandenbulcke et al. (2011) and Rietveld and Daniel (2004). The word proper has been put in quotation marks because the weighting system used is simply an approximation and assimilation of these studies, meaning that it is not necessarily 100 percent accurate. The map viewer should also keep in mind that there are many other factors that could have been included in this analysis.

Regardless of the fact that the model could be approved upon, the MCE does reveal some interesting results. Though slope (the highest weighted factor in the model) does factor significantly into the distribution of the results, there are certain areas that are likely to support a PBS regardless of the fact that they have a moderate-high slope.

The area between Cambie Street and Fraser Street, between 12th Avenue and King Edward Avenue, is a good example. Due to the fact that this area is near a Greenway (Ontario Street), numerous Bikeways, and also has a socio-cultural make up that lends itself to higher bike ridership

Close-up of area between Cambie and Fraser, 12th Avenue and King Edward

The socio-cultural factors that improve the likelihood of a PBS being successful are mostly clustered in the north of the study area in the neighboorhoods of Kitsilano, Fairview, Mount Pleasant and Commercial Drive - areas which also happen to have low slope values (though this is not always the case when looking at a small scale). These neighbourhoods have large proportions of their populations in the age range that is most likely to use the PBS. However, though much of the population of these neighbourhoods are of childbearing age, the proportion of these neighbourhoods made up by children (14 and under) is relatively low. The result of this relationship is that the adults in these neighbourhoods will be even more likely to use the PBS since they will be less likely hindered by having to transport a young child, as well as themselves.

Greenways and Bikeways, on the other hand, are found across the city, in areas surrounded by high slope values and low slope values alike. When the infrastructure and the socio-cultural make-up of the city is considered together, then, the best areas of the city for a PBS largely mirrors the distribution of the slope and socio-cultural factors. This is the case even though the city's cycling infrastructure was actually weighted quite high in the MCE.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - MCE WITH SOCIAL FACTORS WEIGHTED HIGHEST

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - MCE WITH CYCLING INFRASTRUCTURE WEIGHTED HIGHEST

Running the MCE a second time with the weights for population density of people 15 to 44, proportion of children and proportion of immigrants all equal and significantly higher than the rest reveals a map that is similar to the one displaying the proper weights. This is interesting since in the first map the social factors are weighted the lowest. The reason for this result is that the socio-cultural factors, though weighted lowest in the proper analysis, largely coincide with areas of low slope.

Running the MCE a third time, privileging the factors related in cycling infrastructure in Vancouver (the Bikeways, Greenways and Rapid Transit Lines) reveals quite a different result than in the properly weighted map. Though these factors were assigned medium weights in the proper analysis, they seem to have been largely (although not altogether) discounted. This map illustrates the reason for this, and that is because many of the bikeways, greenways and rapid transit stations in Vancouver happen to be located in areas surrounded by relatively high slope values and areas that have a socio-cultural make up that is less likely to encourage cycling.

Sensitivity Analyses

These sensitivity analyses demonstrate that in order to make an accurate conclusion from this MCE, it would be necessary to perform further research surrounding the appropriate weightings of the factors. If cycling infrastructure was found to be significantly more important than any other factor in the people of Vancouver's decision to use the PBS or not, the results of this analysis would be inaccurate.